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Northern Ireland’s property market bubble: a preliminary analysis

Gallagher, Emer, Bond, Derek and Ramsey, Elaine (2015) Northern Ireland’s property market bubble: a preliminary analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 22 (1). pp. 61-65. [Journal article]

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URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2014.925044#.VPcZO_mO7nE

DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.925044


This article applies a recursive regression technique developed by Phillips and Yu (2011) to examine recent property market movements in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in the context of an asset market bubble. This technique, which interprets explosiveness in the price series as evidence of the existence of a bubble, provides a method for identifying not only bubble behaviour but also a dating mechanism. Statistically significant bubble characteristics are identified in both series. For the Republic of Ireland, a prolonged period of explosiveness is detected ranging from 1996Q2 to 2007Q2. Interestingly, the explosiveness is stronger in the late 1990s and early 2000s. For Northern Ireland, the analysis identifies a short yet intense bubble when the market in the Republic had matured, extending from 2005Q3 to 2009Q1 and reaching a peak in 2007Q2. These results taken together indicate the possibility of a spillover effect between the two regions; however, further research to investigate this possibility is necessary.

Item Type:Journal article
Faculties and Schools:Ulster Business School > Department of Business and Enterprise
Ulster Business School
Research Institutes and Groups:Business and Management Research Institute
ID Code:31081
Deposited By: Mr Derek Bond
Deposited On:18 Mar 2015 09:02
Last Modified:18 Mar 2015 09:02

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